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　 Rapid economic growth in China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and other emerging countries will drive global energy consumption to nearly double by 2040, according to new projections released yesterday by the Department of Energy. 根据能源部昨日发布的最新预测，由于中国、印度、印度尼西亚、巴西等发展中国家经济迅速发展，到 2040年全球能源消耗将增长近乎一倍。

　But the associated rise in carbon emissions will not keep pace with overall energy consumption, thanks to a shifting global energy portfolio that relies less on coal for power generation and more on natural gas and renewable energy resources, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its 2016 International Energy Outlook. 美国能源信息署在其《2016 年国际能源展望》中指出，即使全球能耗会增也多不会带来更多的碳排放。因为全球能源结构调整后，人们开始减少使用煤发电，更多地利用天然气和可再生能源发电。

　Based on its latest projections, EIA said global carbon dioxide emissions from energy activities will rise from 36 billion metric tons in 2012, the baseline year used for the 2016 outlook, to 43 billion metric tons in 2040. 鉴于其最新预测，美国能源信息署认为，全球能源消耗所产生的二氧化碳排放量会从 2012 年（“2016 年展望”以 2012 年为基准年）的 3,600,000 公吨增长到 2040 年的 4,300,000 公吨。

　That"s a 34 percent increase in energy-related CO 2 , compared to a 48 percent increase in overall energy consumption from 2010 to 2040, when EIA says the world will consume a record 815 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) of energy. 2010 年至 2040 年，相比于全球能源消耗将增长 48%，全球能耗所产生的二氧化碳排放量会增长 34%，美国能源署认为到 2040 年，全球能源消耗将创造一个新记录，达到 815 千兆英热单位。

　But some critics of EIA"s methodology say the projections on global energy use and CO 2 emissions failed to adequately account for major international policy initiatives, including last year"s pledge by nearly 190 U.N.-member countries to make sharp reductions in energy-sector greenhouse gas emissions. 但是有人质疑美国能源信息署的调查方法，认为美国能信息署对能源消耗和二氧化碳排量的预测没有充分考虑重大的国际政策举措，包括去年，联合国近 190 个成员国誓要大力减排能源消耗带来的温室气体。

　In a public rollout of the data at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said that the agency used more sophisticated modeling tools for the 2016 report than previously available, especially in the transportation sector, and that the world"s demand for fossil fuels will continue to grow. 美国国际战略研究中心公开数据时，美国能源信息署署长亚当·西耶米斯基说：“对于 2016 年报告，能源信息署使用了比以往更复杂的数据建模工具，尤其是在交通运输行业。研究数据还表明世界对化石燃料的需求还会继续增长。” "Even in the aftermath of Paris, I think that our numbers suggest that growth and need for petroleum in transportation and industry is still going to be pretty strong," he said. "Those numbers could come down over time, but it"s still really hard to compete with the energy density that"s in oil." 他还说：“即使签署了《巴黎协议》，但是我认为，根据研究数据，交通运输和工业的发展将会增加对石油的需求。随着时间的推移，对石油的需求量可能会减少，但是要同石油中的能量密度竞争，真的还是很难。” Among other things, the new report portends continued rising demand for natural gas, along with sustained 此外，新报告还预测随着风能产品、太阳能产品和核能产品也会不断发

　growth in wind, solar and nuclear energy production. Renewables, led by wind and hydro power, are projected to be the fastest-growing energy resource over the next two decades, according to EIA, expanding by 2.6 percent annually through 2040. 展，人们对天然气的需求会持续增长。根据美国能源信息署的信息，到 2040年年底，以风能和氢能为主的可再生能源每年将以 2.6%的速度增长，预计在未来二十年会成为发展最快的能源。

　Nuclear will also see solid growth, at 2.3 percent annually, underscored by China"s commitment to add 139 gigawatts of nuclear capacity to its grid by 2040. Natural gas, long the No. 3 source of global energy behind oil and coal, will by 2030 become the world"s No. 2 resource as coal consumption plateaus with the onset of new international carbon regulations. 核能也将以每年 2.3%的速度稳定增长，中国在其承诺中强调，到 2040年中国核能发电将增加 1390 亿瓦。到2030 年，由于全球开始实施新的碳排放法规，煤炭消耗进入停滞时期，长期作为第三大能源的天然气，将取代煤炭成为继石油之后的第二大能源。

　Consumption of oil and other forms of liquid petroleum will fall modestly over the next 24 years, from 33 percent of total marketed energy consumption in 2012 to 30 percent in 2040. Oil will continue to be a primary fuel for the transport sector, as well as a key fuel for industrial uses in emerging countries. 石油和其他液体石油产品的消耗在未来 24 年有小幅度的减少。2010 年石油能耗占市场总能耗的 33%，2040 年将下降至 30%。石油仍将是交通运输领域的主要能源，同时也是发展中国家工业发展的重要能源。

　But experts cautioned against the idea that fossil fuels will become 20th-century energy anachronisms by the middle of the 21st century. In fact, fossil fuels will still account for 78 percent of global energy use in 2040, even as the growth in non-fossil fuels exceeds that of oil, coal and gas. 但是专家提醒道：“到 21 世纪中期，化石能源将成为 20 世纪的过时能源。”事实上，到 2040 年，即使非化石燃料的发展胜过石油、煤和天然气，但化石能源的消耗量仍将占全球能源耗的 78%。

　"Abundant natural gas resources and robust production—including rising supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane—contribute to the strong competitive position of natural gas," EIA said in the outlook. 美国能源信息署在其“展望”中说：“天然气资源丰富且产量大（包括致密气、岩页气和煤层气等天然气的产量正不断提高）,因而具有较强的竞争力。” While considerably diminished from a decade ago, coal-fired power generation is expected to grow by 0.6 percent annually over the coming years and will account for between 28 and 29 percent of global power generation by 2040, compared to 40 percent in 2012. 比起 2012 年燃煤发电量占全球发电量的 40%，尽管从十年前开始燃煤发电已显著减少，但在未来几年，燃煤发电可能还在以每年 0.6%的速度增长，到 2040 年，燃煤发电量将占全球发电量的 28%~29%。

　Natural gas and renewables, including hydropower, are also expected to claim between 28 and 29 percent of total global power generation by 2040, with the remainder coming from existing and new nuclear plants. 到 2040 年，天然气和包括水力在内的可再生能源发电量将有望达到全球发电 总 量 的 28%~29% ， 剩 余 的71%~72%的发电量将由现有核电站和新兴核电站提供。

　"This is going to happen in many places around the world, and it will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by a significant amount," Sieminski told energy policy 总部位于罗德岛大道的美国国际战略研究中心是由花岗岩和玻璃建筑的，西耶米斯基告诉聚集在这里的能源政

　experts and journalists gathered at CSIS"s granite-and-glass headquarters on Rhode Island Avenue. 策专家和新闻工作者：

　“全球许多地区都会发生这一变化，这也会极大减少二氧化碳的排放。

　” In one of the first high-level analyses of how U.S. carbon regulation will affect global energy markets, EIA projects that U.S. EPA"s Clean Power Plan would further shave coal consumption by roughly 1 percent after 2020 while driving a comparable increase in renewable energy deployment. 一项美国碳排放管理条例影响全球能源市场的初步高级分析中，美国能源信息署预测，美国环境保护署的《清洁能源计划》在 2020 年以后将进一步减少大约 1%的煤炭消耗，相对来说，这也会促进可再生资源的发展。

　"It changes the global numbers a little bit, it changes the U.S. numbers more, and it particularly changes coal in the U.S. by more," Sieminski said. "You can see coal plateauing." 西耶米斯基说：

　“这一计划在全球范围的改变只有一点点，但是对美国，影响巨大。尤其是它更多地改变了美国的煤炭消耗。你可能会见证美国煤炭消耗的进入停滞期。” Among the world"s three largest coal users—the United States, China and India—only India is projected to see an overall increase in coal consumption by 2040. China is expected to begin reducing its use of coal after 2025, while the United States is already seeing a downward trajectory in coal use, one that could grow steeper if the Clean Power Plan is upheld in court. 全球煤炭三大消费国：美国、中国和印度，其中只有印度在 2040 年的煤炭消耗量总体可能会增加。中国在 2025年以后有望开始减少煤炭消耗，而美国已经开始减少煤炭使用，一旦《清洁能源计划》在法庭上通过，美国就有望进一步减少煤炭消耗。

　While U.S. markets and policy will continue to be critical benchmarks for global energy, the United States will not be among the fastest-growing energy markets going forward, EIA found. 美国能源信息署发现，尽管美国市场和政策将继续成为全球能源的标杆，但是美国将不会向发展最快的能源市场进军。

　In fact, by 2040, nearly two-thirds of all of the world"s energy use will be in developing countries outside the 34-member Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Among non-OECD members, Asian countries like China, India and Indonesia will account for 55 percent of all new energy use through 2040, the analysis found. 事实上，到 2040 年，全球三分之二的能源将被发展中国家消耗，这些发展中国家不在经济合作和发展组织的32 个成员国之列。该分析发现，非经济合作和发展组织成员的亚洲国家，如中国、印度和印度尼西亚等国家到2040 年年底将消耗全球 55%的新能源。

　Increasing oil and liquid fuels consumption for industry and transportation will be particularly strong in countries like China and India, Sieminski said, where rising incomes and a proliferation of privately owned cars and trucks has led to significant increases in vehicles miles traveled (VMT). 西耶米斯基说: “像中国和印度这样的国家，用于工业和交通运输的石油和液态燃料会显著增多，随着这些国家人民收入的提高，私家车和卡车的增多，车辆里程也随之显著增加。” But critics like David Turnbull of the climate-focused nonprofit group Oil Change International said EIA should have given stronger consideration to shifting national and international climate policies, especially over the last several years. 但是，国际石油变革组织（一个关注气候变化的非赢利性组织）的大卫·特恩布尔等人批评美国能源信息署，特别是在过去几年里，没有着重考虑调整国家和国际气候政策。

　"We all know that we"re moving in a different direction now," Turnbull said. "The Paris Agreement was a clear indication that the fossil fuel era was ending. To make a projection that ignores some of these major shifts in public opinion, in energy markets, in renewable energy policy, is leaving out a big piece of the picture." 特恩布尔说：

　“我们都知道我们现在正在走向另一个方向。《巴黎协议》清楚地表明化石燃料时代已经终结。做出的预测如果忽视民意、能源市场和可再生资源政策等一些重大转变，就是遗漏整个大局中的重要部分。” A spokesman for EIA stressed in an email that the agency did not ignore the Paris accord or other international agreements in its analysis. 一位美国能源信息署的发言人在邮件中强调，能源署在其分析中有考虑《巴黎协议》和其他国际协议。

　In fact, the report makes clear that EIA "has tried to incorporate some of the specific details," such as renewable energy goals put forward in the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, in its 2016 IEO reference case. "However, a great deal of uncertainty remains with regard to the implementation of policies to meet stated goals." 事实上，该项报告指明美国能源信息署“已试图考虑一些特定的细节”，例如，在其 2016 年的国际环境组织参考案例中，能源信息署参考了《联合国气候变化框架公约》提出的可再生资源目标。但是，与政策实施相关的大量不确定因素使既定目标仍无法实现。

　In his comments at CSIS, Sieminski acknowledged that long-term projections like those in the IEO are imperfect and that policy and technology changes can lead to radically different outcomes than the best analysis can predict. 西耶米斯基在美国国际战略研究中心的评论中承认国际环境组织等做出的那些长期预测不完善，但是，由于政策和技术变革可能导致结果发生相当大的变化，这即使是根据最全面的分析也无法预测的。

　"There"s probably a lot of flex in these numbers," Sieminski said. "Does that mean that we are wasting taxpayer dollars doing it? The answer is no. It"s hugely valuable to policymakers, it"s hugely valuable to the public." 西耶米斯基说：

　“可能这些数字有许多值得商榷之处，但是这难道就意味着我们是在浪费纳税人的钱吗？答案是‘没有’。对政策制定者和公众来说这些数字具有巨大的价值。” 点评：文章主要讲了美国能源信息署预测了到 2040 年各种能源消耗问题，相关人员针对能耗问题发表了不同的看法。译者在翻译时，基本做到了忠实原文，保持了原文的风格，该译文语句通顺，整体来讲，是一篇不错的译文。文章多长句，译者在处理个别地方时理解有偏差，仍需加强。

　 评价：整体翻译不错，唯一出错的一句话需要综合下文看下逻辑关系，就可以确定了。

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